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Manacor vs Llosetense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Manacor
Manacor
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Llosetense
Llosetense
3/9/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 24Poliesportiu Municipal Na Capellera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Manacor48%
×Draw24%
Llosetense28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manacor
1.65
Llosetense
1.19

Manacor creates 39% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 116 away

creates per match

Manacor
1.96
Llosetense
1.31

allows per match

Manacor
1.07
Llosetense
1.34

finishing

Manacor+0.00on par
Llosetense+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manacor ↓

Llosetense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Manacor or draw
72%
Manacor or Llosetense
76%
Draw or Llosetense
52%

Winning margin

Manacor wins by 2+
25%
Llosetense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Manacor 1+ goals
81%
Manacor 2+ goals
49%
Manacor 3+ goals
23%
Llosetense 1+ goals
70%
Llosetense 2+ goals
33%
Llosetense 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Manacor (draw refunded)
64%
Llosetense (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manacor at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.07 · 115 matches

Llosetense away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.34 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manacor attack 1.96 + Llosetense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.65

Llosetense attack 1.31 + Manacor defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Manacor scores more
48%
level
24%
Llosetense scores more
28%

Manacor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Manacor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Manacor 3–2 Llosetense

Manacor beat Llosetense 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Poliesportiu Municipal Na Capellera in Manacor.