Manacor 0–0 Binissalem: Result & Stats

Manacor

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Binissalem

11/25/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 12Poliesportiu Municipal Na Capellera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Manacor52%

×Draw25%

Binissalem23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ManacorExpected goals in this matchBinissalem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.00

Manacor

1.64

Binissalem

1.00

Manacor creates 64% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 113 away

1.96

creates per match

0.92

1.07

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Manacor

1.96

Binissalem

0.92

allows per match

Manacor

1.07

Binissalem

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manacor+0.00on par

Binissalem+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manacor ↓

Binissalem →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Manacor or draw

77%

Manacor or Binissalem

75%

Draw or Binissalem

48%

Winning margin

Manacor wins by 2+

28%

Binissalem wins by 2+

Team goals

Manacor 1+ goals

81%

Manacor 2+ goals

49%

Manacor 3+ goals

23%

Binissalem 1+ goals

63%

Binissalem 2+ goals

26%

Binissalem 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Manacor (draw refunded)

69%

Binissalem (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Manacor at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.07 · 115 matches

Binissalem away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.32 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Manacor attack 1.96 + Binissalem defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.64

Binissalem attack 0.92 + Manacor defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Manacor scores more

52%

level

25%

Binissalem scores more

23%

Manacor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Manacor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff