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Malta vs Gibraltar — UEFA Nations League 2018

Malta
Malta
Preview
18:45
Gibraltar
Gibraltar
10/1/2026UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · 3
Big match
49%
Malta
model favours
49%28%23%

Top-of-the-table clash — Malta 2 vs Gibraltar 2

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Malta49%
×Draw28%
Gibraltar23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malta
1.36
Gibraltar
0.83

Malta creates 64% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

Malta
0.89
Gibraltar
0.33

allows per match

Malta
1.33
Gibraltar
1.83

finishing

Malta+0.00on par
Gibraltar+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta ↓

Gibraltar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Malta or draw
77%
Malta or Gibraltar
72%
Draw or Gibraltar
51%

Winning margin

Malta wins by 2+
24%
Gibraltar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Malta 1+ goals
74%
Malta 2+ goals
39%
Malta 3+ goals
16%
Gibraltar 1+ goals
56%
Gibraltar 2+ goals
20%
Gibraltar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Malta (draw refunded)
68%
Gibraltar (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Gibraltar away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta attack 0.89 + Gibraltar defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.36

Gibraltar attack 0.33 + Malta defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Malta scores more
49%
level
28%
Gibraltar scores more
23%

Malta at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Malta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Malta
Balanced
Gibraltar
Direct / counter-attacking
57%Possession40%
79%Pass accuracy70%
11.1ShotsBiggest gap7.4
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
MaltaGibraltar

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Malta
WLLLL
Gibraltar
WWLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Malta host Gibraltar

October 1, 2026: Malta take on Gibraltar in UEFA Nations League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.