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Malmo FF vs IF Elfsborg — Allsvenskan 2026

Malmo FF
Malmo FF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
11/12/2023AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 30Eleda Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Malmo FF53%
×Draw23%
IF Elfsborg24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malmo FF
1.82
IF Elfsborg
1.16

Malmo FF creates 57% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Malmo FF
2.13
IF Elfsborg
1.35

allows per match

Malmo FF
0.97
IF Elfsborg
1.52

finishing

Malmo FF+0.14scores more
IF Elfsborg-0.27scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

IF Elfsborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw
76%
Malmo FF or IF Elfsborg
77%
Draw or IF Elfsborg
47%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+
30%
IF Elfsborg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals
84%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
54%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
27%
IF Elfsborg 1+ goals
69%
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
32%
IF Elfsborg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)
68%
IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.97 · 11 matches

IF Elfsborg away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.52 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 2.13 + IF Elfsborg defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.82

IF Elfsborg attack 1.35 + Malmo FF defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Malmo FF scores more
53%
level
23%
IF Elfsborg scores more
24%

Malmo FF at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Malmo FF 1–0 IF Elfsborg

Malmo FF beat IF Elfsborg 1-0 in Allsvenskan on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Eleda Stadion in Malmö.