Mallorca 4–2 Villarreal: Result & Stats | La Liga

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchVillarreal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.28

Mallorca

1.30

Villarreal

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 38 away

1.30

creates per match

1.31

1.25

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Mallorca

1.30

Villarreal

1.31

allows per match

Mallorca

1.25

Villarreal

1.30

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Mallorca+0.22scores more

Villarreal+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Villarreal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

64%

Mallorca or Villarreal

73%

Draw or Villarreal

63%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

17%

Villarreal wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

73%

Mallorca 2+ goals

37%

Mallorca 3+ goals

14%

Villarreal 1+ goals

72%

Villarreal 2+ goals

37%

Villarreal 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

51%

Villarreal (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.25 · 40 matches

Villarreal away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.30 + Villarreal defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.30

Villarreal attack 1.31 + Mallorca defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mallorca scores more

37%

level

27%

Villarreal scores more

36%

Mallorca at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Dani Rodríguez

Mallorca · M

8.2

Match Events

20'

T. Kadewere↳ V. Muriqi

21'

21'

37'

43'

45'

Dani Rodríguez↳ Pablo Maffeo

50'

S. Chukwueze↳ Yeremy Pino

56'

Dani Rodríguez↳ Lee Kang-In

63'

V. Muriqi↳ Raíllo

67'

H. Hassan← Yeremy Pino

67'

Álex Baena← S. Chukwueze

69'

Jaume Costa

72'

José Copete

74'

R. Battaglia← Dani Rodríguez

78'

M. Nastasić← Copete

78'

Ángel← T. Kadewere

81'

C. Grenier← Lee Kang-In

81'

Abdón Prats← V. Muriqi

89'

Matija Nastasić

89'

Ramón Terrats← É. Capoue

89'

Fer Niño← José Luis Morales

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaVillarreal

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots8

2.25Expected Goals (xG)1.20

4Corners4

19Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots8

5On Target4

5Off Target3

3Blocked1

12Inside Box4

1Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

372Total Passes460

306Accurate Passes397

82%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls8

5Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

5Offsides1

Match Recap: Mallorca vs Villarreal

Mallorca beat Villarreal 4-2 in La Liga on February 18, 2023.

Goals: T. Kadewere (20'), José Luis Morales (43'), Dani Rodríguez (45', 56'), S. Chukwueze (50'), V. Muriqi (63').

Villarreal controlled possession (55%) and registered 8 shots to 13.

The match was played at Visit Mallorca Estadi in Palma de Mallorca.

Mallorca vs Villarreal — La Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Mallorca vs Villarreal