Mallorca 3–1 Villarreal: Result & Stats | La Liga

Mallorca

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Villarreal

T. Kubo 53'

Dani Rodríguez 23' (pen)

J. Lago 13' (pen)

Santi Cazorla 49' (pen)

11/10/2019

La Liga · Round 13Iberostar Estadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 39+ matches

Mallorca38%

×Draw27%

Villarreal35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchVillarreal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.25

Mallorca

1.31

Villarreal

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 39 away

1.24

creates per match

1.29

1.21

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Mallorca

1.24

Villarreal

1.29

allows per match

Mallorca

1.21

Villarreal

1.37

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Mallorca+0.21scores more

Villarreal+0.17scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Villarreal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

65%

Mallorca or Villarreal

73%

Draw or Villarreal

62%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

17%

Villarreal wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

73%

Mallorca 2+ goals

38%

Mallorca 3+ goals

14%

Villarreal 1+ goals

71%

Villarreal 2+ goals

36%

Villarreal 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

52%

Villarreal (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.21 · 44 matches

Villarreal away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.37 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.24 + Villarreal defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Villarreal attack 1.29 + Mallorca defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mallorca scores more

38%

level

27%

Villarreal scores more

35%

Mallorca at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

Takefusa Kubo

Mallorca · M

7.7

Match Events

13'

J. LagoPenalty

22'

Sergio Asenjo

23'

Dani RodríguezPenalty

46'

S. Chukwueze← Iborra

49'

Santi CazorlaPenalty

53'

T. Kubo↳ Febas

55'

Dani Rodriguez

60'

Rubén Peña

67'

Josep Señé← T. Kubo

68'

Javi Ontiveros← Moi Gómez

77'

Raúl Albiol

81'

Manu Trigueros← Mario Gaspar

82'

Abdón Prats← A. Budimir

86'

Xisco Campos← L. Agbenyenu

90'

Aleix Febas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaVillarreal

Overview

34%Possession66%

5Total Shots22

2Corners5

18Fouls17

Shots

5Total Shots22

3On Target6

2Off Target6

0Blocked10

3Inside Box12

2Outside Box10

Passing

34%Possession66%

284Total Passes571

224Accurate Passes497

79%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0