Mallorca 1–0 Valencia: Result & Stats | La Liga

Mallorca

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Valencia

V. Muriqi 64'

5/25/2023

La Liga · Round 36Visit Mallorca Estadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

Mallorca44%

×Draw26%

Valencia31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchValencia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.20

Mallorca

1.48

Valencia

1.20

Mallorca creates 23% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 37 away

1.32

creates per match

1.09

1.30

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Mallorca

1.32

Valencia

1.09

allows per match

Mallorca

1.30

Valencia

1.65

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Mallorca+0.18scores more

Valencia-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Valencia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

69%

Mallorca or Valencia

74%

Draw or Valencia

56%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

21%

Valencia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

77%

Mallorca 2+ goals

43%

Mallorca 3+ goals

19%

Valencia 1+ goals

70%

Valencia 2+ goals

34%

Valencia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

59%

Valencia (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.30 · 36 matches

Valencia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.32 + Valencia defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

Valencia attack 1.09 + Mallorca defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mallorca scores more

44%

level

26%

Valencia scores more

31%

Mallorca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

P. Rajković

Mallorca · G

8.0

Match Events

8'

Tino Kadewere

12'

Kang-in Lee

39'

Dani Rodríguez

46'

Jaume Costa← A. Ndiaye

64'

V. Muriqi↳ Lee Kang-In

65'

Abdón Prats← T. Kadewere

66'

J. Kluivert← Nico González

66'

Samu Castillejo← Diego López

75'

Alberto Marí← Samuel Lino

75'

E. Cavani← Hugo Duro

76'

Manu Morlanes← D. Hadžikadunić

83'

Edinson Cavani

83'

Josep Gayá← Lee Kang-In

83'

Antonio Sánchez← Dani Rodríguez

83'

D. Foulquier← Thierry Correia

90+5'

Antonio Sánchez

90+3'

Alberto Mari

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaValencia

Overview

40%Possession60%

4Total Shots15

0.54Expected Goals (xG)1.96

2Corners4

15Fouls12

Shots

4Total Shots15

3On Target5

0Off Target4

1Blocked6

3Inside Box12

1Outside Box3

Passing

40%Possession60%

326Total Passes485

243Accurate Passes399

75%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls12

4Yellow Cards2