Mallorca 4–1 Valencia: Result & Stats | La Liga

Mallorca

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Valencia

Dani Rodríguez 79'

A. Budimir 41', 22'

Raillo 7'

Ferran Torres 82'

1/19/2020

La Liga · Round 20Iberostar Estadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Mallorca44%

×Draw26%

Valencia30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchValencia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.15

Mallorca

1.44

Valencia

1.15

Mallorca creates 25% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 37 away

1.24

creates per match

1.09

1.21

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Mallorca

1.24

Valencia

1.09

allows per match

Mallorca

1.21

Valencia

1.65

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Mallorca+0.21scores more

Valencia-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Valencia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

70%

Mallorca or Valencia

74%

Draw or Valencia

56%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

21%

Valencia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

76%

Mallorca 2+ goals

42%

Mallorca 3+ goals

18%

Valencia 1+ goals

68%

Valencia 2+ goals

32%

Valencia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

59%

Valencia (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.21 · 44 matches

Valencia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.24 + Valencia defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.44

Valencia attack 1.09 + Mallorca defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mallorca scores more

44%

level

26%

Valencia scores more

30%

Mallorca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Salva Sevilla

Mallorca · M

8.7

Match Events

6'

Dani Parejo

7'

Raillo↳ Salva Sevilla

12'

Francis Coquelin

22'

A. Budimir↳ Dani Rodríguez

38'

Raillo

41'

A. Budimir↳ Salva Sevilla

44'

Ferran Torres← D. Cheryshev

51'

51'

55'

60'

61'

Lee Kang-In← K. Gameiro

64'

Alejandro Pozo← J. Hernández

69'

Febas← Salva Sevilla

79'

Dani Rodríguez↳ A. Budimir

80'

T. Kubo← J. Lago

81'

Takefusa Kubo

82'

Ferran Torres↳ D. Wass

87'

Ferrán Torres

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaValencia

Overview

42%Possession58%

14Total Shots8

1Corners6

18Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots8

6On Target1

6Off Target3

2Blocked4

11Inside Box4

3Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

386Total Passes526

312Accurate Passes454

81%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls11

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

4Offsides2