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Mallorca vs Real Sociedad II — Segunda División 2018

Mallorca
Mallorca
Preview
16:00
Real Sociedad II
Real Sociedad II
2/28/2027Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 28Estadi Mallorca Son Moix
52%
Mallorca
model favours
52%26%22%

Real Sociedad II score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Mallorca52%
×Draw26%
Real Sociedad II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mallorca
1.54
Real Sociedad II
0.89

Mallorca creates 73% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 42 away

creates per match

Mallorca
1.57
Real Sociedad II
1.12

allows per match

Mallorca
0.65
Real Sociedad II
1.50

finishing

Mallorca+0.00on par
Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Real Sociedad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw
78%
Mallorca or Real Sociedad II
74%
Draw or Real Sociedad II
48%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+
27%
Real Sociedad II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals
79%
Mallorca 2+ goals
45%
Mallorca 3+ goals
20%
Real Sociedad II 1+ goals
59%
Real Sociedad II 2+ goals
22%
Real Sociedad II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)
71%
Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.65 · 46 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.50 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.57 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Real Sociedad II attack 1.12 + Mallorca defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mallorca scores more
52%
level
26%
Real Sociedad II scores more
22%

Mallorca at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 30% of Mallorca’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Mallorca and Real Sociedad II have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Mallorca
WLLDW
II
LDLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mallorca vs Real Sociedad II — Match Preview

Mallorca face Real Sociedad II on February 28, 2027 in this Segunda División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Mallorca host Real Sociedad II at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.