Mallorca 3–0 Rayo Vallecano: Result & Stats

Mallorca

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rayo Vallecano

Ángel 90+3'

Copete 71'

V. Muriqi 51'

6/4/2023

La Liga · Round 38Visit Mallorca Estadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Mallorca42%

×Draw26%

Rayo Vallecano32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchRayo Vallecano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.20

Mallorca

1.43

Rayo Vallecano

1.20

Mallorca creates 19% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 41 away

1.34

creates per match

1.11

1.28

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Mallorca

1.34

Rayo Vallecano

1.11

allows per match

Mallorca

1.28

Rayo Vallecano

1.52

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Mallorca+0.17scores more

Rayo Vallecano-0.31scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Rayo Vallecano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

68%

Mallorca or Rayo Vallecano

74%

Draw or Rayo Vallecano

58%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

20%

Rayo Vallecano wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

76%

Mallorca 2+ goals

42%

Mallorca 3+ goals

17%

Rayo Vallecano 1+ goals

70%

Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals

34%

Rayo Vallecano 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

57%

Rayo Vallecano (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.28 · 35 matches

Rayo Vallecano away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.52 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.34 + Rayo Vallecano defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Rayo Vallecano attack 1.11 + Mallorca defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mallorca scores more

42%

level

26%

Rayo Vallecano scores more

32%

Mallorca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Copete

Mallorca · D

8.3

Match Events

51'

V. Muriqi↳ Dani Rodríguez

65'

Sergio Camello← Pep Chavarría

69'

Ángel← Manu Morlanes

71'

Copete↳ Lee Kang-In

73'

Salvi← I. Balliu

73'

R. Falcao← Raúl de Tomás

77'

Abdón Prats← V. Muriqi

77'

I. Baba← Ruíz de Galarreta

85'

Antonio Sánchez← Lee Kang-In

85'

Diego López← S. Dimitrievski

85'

Mario Suárez← Óscar Valentín

86'

G. González← Pablo Maffeo

90+3'

Ángel↳ Dani Rodríguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaRayo

Overview

47%Possession53%

8Total Shots21

2.25Expected Goals (xG)1.12

2Corners6

14Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots21

4On Target4

4Off Target12

0Blocked5

7Inside Box9

1Outside Box12

Passing

47%Possession53%

340Total Passes355

261Accurate Passes286

77%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls15

2Offsides0