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Mallorca vs Girona — Segunda División 2018

Mallorca
Mallorca
Preview
15:00
Girona
Girona
4/4/2027Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 33Estadi Mallorca Son Moix
Big match
50%
Mallorca
model favours
50%27%23%

Even after scoring first, Girona win only 44%

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Mallorca50%
×Draw27%
Girona23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mallorca
1.40
Girona
0.84

Mallorca creates 67% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 72 away

creates per match

Mallorca
1.57
Girona
1.04

allows per match

Mallorca
0.65
Girona
1.22

finishing

Mallorca+0.00on par
Girona+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Girona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw
77%
Mallorca or Girona
73%
Draw or Girona
50%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+
24%
Girona wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals
75%
Mallorca 2+ goals
41%
Mallorca 3+ goals
17%
Girona 1+ goals
57%
Girona 2+ goals
21%
Girona 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)
69%
Girona (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.65 · 46 matches

Girona away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.22 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.57 + Girona defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.40

Girona attack 1.04 + Mallorca defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mallorca scores more
50%
level
27%
Girona scores more
23%

Mallorca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Girona win just 18% of their away games
  • 30% of Mallorca’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Mallorca
WLLDW
Girona
WDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mallorca host Girona

April 4, 2027: Mallorca take on Girona in Segunda División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mallorca host Girona at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.