Mallorca 3–1 Getafe: Result & Stats | La Liga

Mallorca

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Getafe

Lee Kang-In 90+6', 56'

Raíllo 64'

Borja Mayoral 23'

4/23/2023

La Liga · Round 30Visit Mallorca Estadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Mallorca45%

×Draw27%

Getafe28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchGetafe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.05

Mallorca

1.39

Getafe

1.05

Mallorca creates 32% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 42 away

1.31

creates per match

0.83

1.28

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Mallorca

1.31

Getafe

0.83

allows per match

Mallorca

1.28

Getafe

1.46

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Mallorca+0.16scores more

Getafe-0.14scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Getafe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

72%

Mallorca or Getafe

73%

Draw or Getafe

55%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

21%

Getafe wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

75%

Mallorca 2+ goals

40%

Mallorca 3+ goals

16%

Getafe 1+ goals

65%

Getafe 2+ goals

28%

Getafe 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

61%

Getafe (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.28 · 34 matches

Getafe away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.46 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.31 + Getafe defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.39

Getafe attack 0.83 + Mallorca defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mallorca scores more

45%

level

27%

Getafe scores more

28%

Mallorca at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Raíllo

Mallorca · D

8.5

Match Events

23'

Borja Mayoral↳ Luis Milla

32'

Omar Alderete

46'

Jaume Costa← Antonio Sánchez

56'

Lee Kang-In

64'

Antonio Raíllo

64'

Raíllo↳ Ruíz de Galarreta

68'

Carles Aleñá← D. Suárez

68'

Gonzalo Villar← N. Maksimović

68'

Portu← M. El Haddadi

73'

I. Baba← Manu Morlanes

74'

Dani Rodríguez← A. Ndiaye

81'

Abdón Prats← V. Muriqi

87'

Gonzalo Villar

88'

Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta

90+6'

Jaime Mata

90+1'

C. Grenier← Ruíz de Galarreta

90'

Jaime Mata← O. Alderete

90+6'

Lee Kang-In↳ Raíllo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaGetafe

Overview

49%Possession51%

8Total Shots3

1.51Expected Goals (xG)0.10

2Corners2

15Fouls18

Shots

8Total Shots3

4On Target1

4Off Target1

0Blocked1

8Inside Box2

0Outside Box1

Passing

49%Possession51%

398Total Passes423

287Accurate Passes306

72%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1