Mallorca 0–0 Getafe: Result & Stats | La Liga

Mallorca

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Getafe

11/27/2021

La Liga · Round 15Visit Mallorca Estadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 42+ matches

Mallorca44%

×Draw27%

Getafe28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchGetafe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.02

Mallorca

1.35

Getafe

1.02

Mallorca creates 32% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 42 away

1.24

creates per match

0.83

1.21

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Mallorca

1.24

Getafe

0.83

allows per match

Mallorca

1.21

Getafe

1.46

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Mallorca+0.21scores more

Getafe-0.14scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Getafe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

72%

Mallorca or Getafe

73%

Draw or Getafe

56%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

21%

Getafe wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

74%

Mallorca 2+ goals

39%

Mallorca 3+ goals

15%

Getafe 1+ goals

64%

Getafe 2+ goals

27%

Getafe 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

61%

Getafe (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.21 · 44 matches

Getafe away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.46 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.24 + Getafe defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.35

Getafe attack 0.83 + Mallorca defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mallorca scores more

44%

level

27%

Getafe scores more

28%

Mallorca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

F. Russo

Mallorca · D

7.9

Match Events

60'

Jordi Mboula

67'

Franco Russo

68'

T. Kubo← Jordi Mboula

68'

Mata← Sandro Ramírez

70'

Florentino Luís← M. Arambarri

75'

Abdón Prats← Ángel

88'

Darío Poveda← Carles Aleñá

90+3'

Abdón Prats

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaGetafe

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots11

2Corners0

8Fouls19

Shots

12Total Shots11

2On Target0

6Off Target7

4Blocked4

8Inside Box5

4Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

431Total Passes385

332Accurate Passes284

77%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls19

3Yellow Cards0

4Offsides2