Mallorca 1–1 Elche: Result & Stats

Mallorca

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Elche

A. Budimir 56'

Iván Sánchez 15'

3/3/2019

Segunda División · Round 28Iberostar Estadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Mallorca50%

×Draw27%

Elche23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchElche

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.86

Mallorca

1.43

Elche

0.86

Mallorca creates 66% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 86 away

1.57

creates per match

1.07

0.65

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Mallorca

1.57

Elche

1.07

allows per match

Mallorca

0.65

Elche

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mallorca+0.00on par

Elche+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Elche →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

77%

Mallorca or Elche

73%

Draw or Elche

50%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

25%

Elche wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

76%

Mallorca 2+ goals

42%

Mallorca 3+ goals

17%

Elche 1+ goals

58%

Elche 2+ goals

21%

Elche 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

69%

Elche (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.65 · 46 matches

Elche away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.57 + Elche defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.43

Elche attack 1.07 + Mallorca defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mallorca scores more

50%

level

27%

Elche scores more

23%

Mallorca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Iván Sánchez

Elche · M

8.3

Match Events

15'

Iván Sánchez↳ Javi Flores

31'

Yacine Qasmi

38'

Manuel Sanchez

46'

Álex López← Ariday Cabrera

51'

52'

53'

56'

57'

61'

Juan Cruz Álvaro Armada

62'

Pedraza

64'

Xavi Torres← Manuel Sánchez

66'

66'

66'

68'

70'

L. Suárez← Marc Pedraza

73'

N. Lozano← Josán Fernández

81'

Fran Gámez← Salva Ruiz

86'

K. Azamoum← Iván Sánchez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaElche

Overview

57%Possession43%

17Total Shots11

4Corners4

14Fouls21

Shots

17Total Shots11

5On Target4

7Off Target5

5Blocked2

10Inside Box5

7Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

417Total Passes319

357Accurate Passes239

86%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls21

3Yellow Cards8

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0