Mallorca 0–1 Barcelona: Result & Stats | La Liga

Mallorca

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Barcelona

R. Lewandowski 20'

10/1/2022

La Liga · Round 7Visit Mallorca Estadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Mallorca31%

×Draw24%

Barcelona45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchBarcelona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.71

Mallorca

1.38

Barcelona

1.71

Barcelona creates 24% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 34 away

1.24

creates per match

2.20

1.21

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Mallorca

1.24

Barcelona

2.20

allows per match

Mallorca

1.21

Barcelona

1.52

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Mallorca+0.21scores more

Barcelona+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Barcelona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

55%

Mallorca or Barcelona

76%

Draw or Barcelona

69%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

14%

Barcelona wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

75%

Mallorca 2+ goals

40%

Mallorca 3+ goals

16%

Barcelona 1+ goals

82%

Barcelona 2+ goals

51%

Barcelona 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

41%

Barcelona (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.21 · 44 matches

Barcelona away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.52 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.24 + Barcelona defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Barcelona attack 2.20 + Mallorca defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mallorca scores more

31%

level

24%

Barcelona scores more

45%

Barcelona at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Barcelona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

R. Lewandowski

Barcelona · F

7.9

Match Events

20'

R. Lewandowski↳ Ansu Fati

39'

39'

42'

45'

67'

Dani Rodríguez← Antonio Sánchez

67'

Raphinha← Ansu Fati

67'

Pedri← F. Kessie

74'

Sergio Busquets

77'

B. Cufré← Jaume Costa

80'

Ferran Torres← O. Dembélé

80'

Sergi Roberto← Jordi Alba

83'

Martin Valjent

85'

L. Junior← Ruíz de Galarreta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaBarcelona

Overview

28%Possession72%

13Total Shots11

5Corners5

9Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots11

3On Target3

7Off Target6

3Blocked2

9Inside Box7

4Outside Box4

Passing

28%Possession72%

283Total Passes770

226Accurate Passes715

80%Pass Accuracy93%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1