Mallorca 2–1 Alaves: Result & Stats | La Liga

Mallorca

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Alaves

V. Muriqi 45+4'

Abdón Prats 11'

Raíllo 73' (OG)

4/19/2022

La Liga · Round 33Visit Mallorca Estadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Mallorca41%

×Draw27%

Alaves32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchAlaves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.16

Mallorca

1.36

Alaves

1.16

Mallorca creates 17% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 28 away

1.24

creates per match

1.11

1.21

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Mallorca

1.24

Alaves

1.11

allows per match

Mallorca

1.21

Alaves

1.48

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Mallorca+0.21scores more

Alaves-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Alaves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

68%

Mallorca or Alaves

73%

Draw or Alaves

59%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

19%

Alaves wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

74%

Mallorca 2+ goals

39%

Mallorca 3+ goals

16%

Alaves 1+ goals

69%

Alaves 2+ goals

32%

Alaves 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

56%

Alaves (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.21 · 44 matches

Alaves away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.48 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.24 + Alaves defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Alaves attack 1.11 + Mallorca defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mallorca scores more

41%

level

27%

Alaves scores more

32%

Mallorca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Joselu

Alaves · F

7.5

Match Events

6'

Florian LejeuneGoal cancelled

11'

Abdón Prats↳ Pablo Maffeo

24'

Iddrisu Baba

35'

Manu García

45+2'

Gonzalo Escalante

45+4'

V. Muriqi↳ Dani Rodríguez

54'

R. Battaglia← I. Baba

57'

Edgar Méndez

60'

Miguel de la Fuente← G. Escalante

60'

F. Pellistri← Edgar Méndez

68'

G. González← Abdón Prats

68'

Lee Kang-In← Brian Oliván

73'

Mamadou Loum

73'

Pina← M. Loum

73'

RaílloOwn goal

82'

Fer Niño← T. Kubo

82'

Antonio Sánchez← Salva Sevilla

83'

Vedat Muriqi

90+6'

Martín Aguirregabiria

90+6'

John Guidetti

90'

J. Guidetti← Ximo Navarro

90'

Martín Aguirregabiria← Rubén Duarte

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaAlaves

Overview

40%Possession60%

5Total Shots12

0Corners6

25Fouls15

Shots

5Total Shots12

3On Target4

1Off Target3

1Blocked5

4Inside Box7

1Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

334Total Passes478

226Accurate Passes371

68%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

25Fouls15

2Yellow Cards6

1Offsides3