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Mallorca II vs Platges Calvià — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Mallorca II
Mallorca II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Platges Calvià
Platges Calvià
9/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 5Estadi Son Bibiloni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Mallorca II63%
×Draw21%
Platges Calvià15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mallorca II
1.93
Platges Calvià
0.83

Mallorca II creates 133% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 112 away

creates per match

Mallorca II
2.91
Platges Calvià
1.13

allows per match

Mallorca II
0.53
Platges Calvià
0.94

finishing

Mallorca II+0.00on par
Platges Calvià+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca II ↓

Platges Calvià →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mallorca II or draw
85%
Mallorca II or Platges Calvià
79%
Draw or Platges Calvià
37%

Winning margin

Mallorca II wins by 2+
38%
Platges Calvià wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mallorca II 1+ goals
85%
Mallorca II 2+ goals
57%
Mallorca II 3+ goals
30%
Platges Calvià 1+ goals
56%
Platges Calvià 2+ goals
20%
Platges Calvià 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mallorca II (draw refunded)
80%
Platges Calvià (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca II at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.53 · 81 matches

Platges Calvià away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.94 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca II attack 2.91 + Platges Calvià defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.93

Platges Calvià attack 1.13 + Mallorca II defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Mallorca II scores more
63%
level
21%
Platges Calvià scores more
15%

Mallorca II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Mallorca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Mallorca II 2–0 Platges Calvià

Mallorca II beat Platges Calvià 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadi Son Bibiloni in Palma de Mallorca.