Mallorca II 2–1 Manacor: Result & Stats

Mallorca II

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Manacor

1/21/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 17Estadi Son Bibiloni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Mallorca II63%

×Draw21%

Manacor17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mallorca IIExpected goals in this matchManacor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.94

Mallorca II

2.04

Manacor

0.94

Mallorca II creates 117% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 114 away

2.91

creates per match

1.34

0.53

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Mallorca II

2.91

Manacor

1.34

allows per match

Mallorca II

0.53

Manacor

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mallorca II+0.00on par

Manacor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca II ↓

Manacor →

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Mallorca II or draw

83%

Mallorca II or Manacor

79%

Draw or Manacor

37%

Winning margin

Mallorca II wins by 2+

39%

Manacor wins by 2+

Team goals

Mallorca II 1+ goals

87%

Mallorca II 2+ goals

60%

Mallorca II 3+ goals

33%

Manacor 1+ goals

61%

Manacor 2+ goals

24%

Manacor 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mallorca II (draw refunded)

79%

Manacor (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mallorca II at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.53 · 81 matches

Manacor away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.18 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca II attack 2.91 + Manacor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 2.04

Manacor attack 1.34 + Mallorca II defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Mallorca II scores more

63%

level

21%

Manacor scores more

17%

Mallorca II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Mallorca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff