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Mallorca II vs Llosetense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Mallorca II
Mallorca II
CANC
00:00
Llosetense
Llosetense
4/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 33Estadi Son Bibiloni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Mallorca II65%
×Draw20%
Llosetense15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mallorca II
2.13
Llosetense
0.92

Mallorca II creates 132% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 116 away

creates per match

Mallorca II
2.91
Llosetense
1.31

allows per match

Mallorca II
0.53
Llosetense
1.34

finishing

Mallorca II+0.00on par
Llosetense+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca II ↓

Llosetense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Mallorca II or draw
85%
Mallorca II or Llosetense
80%
Draw or Llosetense
35%

Winning margin

Mallorca II wins by 2+
41%
Llosetense wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mallorca II 1+ goals
88%
Mallorca II 2+ goals
63%
Mallorca II 3+ goals
35%
Llosetense 1+ goals
60%
Llosetense 2+ goals
23%
Llosetense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mallorca II (draw refunded)
81%
Llosetense (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca II at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.53 · 81 matches

Llosetense away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.34 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca II attack 2.91 + Llosetense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 2.13

Llosetense attack 1.31 + Mallorca II defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Mallorca II scores more
65%
level
20%
Llosetense scores more
15%

Mallorca II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Mallorca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mallorca II vs Llosetense — Match Preview

Mallorca II face Llosetense on April 12, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Mallorca II host Llosetense at Estadi Son Bibiloni.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.