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Mallorca II vs Collerense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Mallorca II
Mallorca II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Collerense
Collerense
5/9/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 2nd Phase - 4Estadi Son Bibiloni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Mallorca II73%
×Draw17%
Collerense10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mallorca II
2.40
Collerense
0.77

Mallorca II creates 212% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 113 away

creates per match

Mallorca II
2.91
Collerense
1.00

allows per match

Mallorca II
0.53
Collerense
1.88

finishing

Mallorca II+0.00on par
Collerense+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca II ↓

Collerense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Mallorca II or draw
90%
Mallorca II or Collerense
83%
Draw or Collerense
27%

Winning margin

Mallorca II wins by 2+
50%
Collerense wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mallorca II 1+ goals
91%
Mallorca II 2+ goals
69%
Mallorca II 3+ goals
42%
Collerense 1+ goals
54%
Collerense 2+ goals
18%
Collerense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mallorca II (draw refunded)
88%
Collerense (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca II at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.53 · 81 matches

Collerense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca II attack 2.91 + Collerense defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.40

Collerense attack 1.00 + Mallorca II defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Mallorca II scores more
73%
level
17%
Collerense scores more
10%

Mallorca II at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Mallorca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mallorca II vs Collerense

Mallorca II beat Collerense 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadi Son Bibiloni in Palma de Mallorca.