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Málaga II vs Huétor Tájar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Málaga II
Málaga II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Huétor Tájar
Huétor Tájar
11/6/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 9Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Málaga II57%
×Draw24%
Huétor Tájar19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Málaga II
1.74
Huétor Tájar
0.90

Málaga II creates 93% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 109 away

creates per match

Málaga II
2.03
Huétor Tájar
1.11

allows per match

Málaga II
0.69
Huétor Tájar
1.45

finishing

Málaga II+0.00on par
Huétor Tájar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Málaga II ↓

Huétor Tájar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Málaga II or draw
81%
Málaga II or Huétor Tájar
76%
Draw or Huétor Tájar
43%

Winning margin

Málaga II wins by 2+
32%
Huétor Tájar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Málaga II 1+ goals
82%
Málaga II 2+ goals
52%
Málaga II 3+ goals
25%
Huétor Tájar 1+ goals
59%
Huétor Tájar 2+ goals
23%
Huétor Tájar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Málaga II (draw refunded)
75%
Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Málaga II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.69 · 91 matches

Huétor Tájar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.45 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Málaga II attack 2.03 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.74

Huétor Tájar attack 1.11 + Málaga II defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Málaga II scores more
57%
level
24%
Huétor Tájar scores more
19%

Málaga II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Málaga II 3–2 Huétor Tájar

Málaga II beat Huétor Tájar 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol in Málaga.