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Málaga II vs El Palo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Málaga II
Málaga II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
El Palo
El Palo
11/17/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 14Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Málaga II59%
×Draw24%
El Palo17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Málaga II
1.70
El Palo
0.78

Málaga II creates 118% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 91 away

creates per match

Málaga II
2.03
El Palo
0.87

allows per match

Málaga II
0.69
El Palo
1.38

finishing

Málaga II+0.00on par
El Palo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Málaga II ↓

El Palo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Málaga II or draw
83%
Málaga II or El Palo
76%
Draw or El Palo
41%

Winning margin

Málaga II wins by 2+
33%
El Palo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Málaga II 1+ goals
82%
Málaga II 2+ goals
51%
Málaga II 3+ goals
24%
El Palo 1+ goals
54%
El Palo 2+ goals
18%
El Palo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Málaga II (draw refunded)
78%
El Palo (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Málaga II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.69 · 91 matches

El Palo away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.38 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Málaga II attack 2.03 + El Palo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.70

El Palo attack 0.87 + Málaga II defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Málaga II scores more
59%
level
24%
El Palo scores more
17%

Málaga II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Málaga II 2 – 1 El Palo

Málaga II beat El Palo 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 17, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol in Málaga.