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Malaga City vs Real Jaén — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Malaga City
Malaga City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Jaén
Real Jaén
12/11/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 14Campo Municipal Pepe Luís Bobadilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Malaga City30%
×Draw29%
Real Jaén41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga City
0.99
Real Jaén
1.21

Real Jaén creates 22% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 93 away

creates per match

Malaga City
0.96
Real Jaén
1.15

allows per match

Malaga City
1.27
Real Jaén
1.03

finishing

Malaga City+0.00on par
Real Jaén+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga City ↓

Real Jaén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Malaga City or draw
59%
Malaga City or Real Jaén
71%
Draw or Real Jaén
70%

Winning margin

Malaga City wins by 2+
11%
Real Jaén wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Malaga City 1+ goals
63%
Malaga City 2+ goals
26%
Malaga City 3+ goals
8%
Real Jaén 1+ goals
70%
Real Jaén 2+ goals
34%
Real Jaén 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Malaga City (draw refunded)
42%
Real Jaén (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga City at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

Real Jaén away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.03 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga City attack 0.96 + Real Jaén defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.99

Real Jaén attack 1.15 + Malaga City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Malaga City scores more
30%
level
29%
Real Jaén scores more
41%

Real Jaén at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Jaén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Malaga City 0–0 Real Jaén

Malaga City and Real Jaén drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 11, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Pepe Luís Bobadilla in Nerja.