Malacateco 1–0 Xelajú: Result & Stats

Malacateco

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Xelajú

1/21/2024

Liga Nacional · Clausura - 1Estadio Municipal Santa Lucía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Malacateco54%

×Draw27%

Xelajú19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalacatecoExpected goals in this matchXelajú

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.74

Malacateco

1.43

Xelajú

0.74

Malacateco creates 93% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 149 away

1.55

creates per match

0.75

0.74

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Malacateco

1.55

Xelajú

0.75

allows per match

Malacateco

0.74

Xelajú

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malacateco+0.00on par

Xelajú+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malacateco ↓

Xelajú →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Malacateco or draw

81%

Malacateco or Xelajú

73%

Draw or Xelajú

46%

Winning margin

Malacateco wins by 2+

27%

Xelajú wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Malacateco 1+ goals

76%

Malacateco 2+ goals

42%

Malacateco 3+ goals

17%

Xelajú 1+ goals

52%

Xelajú 2+ goals

17%

Xelajú 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Malacateco (draw refunded)

73%

Xelajú (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malacateco at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.74 · 146 matches

Xelajú away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.30 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malacateco attack 1.55 + Xelajú defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.43

Xelajú attack 0.75 + Malacateco defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Malacateco scores more

54%

level

27%

Xelajú scores more

19%

Malacateco at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Malacateco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff