Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Malacateco vs Cobán Imperial — Liga Nacional 2019

Malacateco
Malacateco
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cobán Imperial
Cobán Imperial
2/24/2024Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 7Estadio Municipal Santa Lucía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Malacateco53%
×Draw26%
Cobán Imperial21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malacateco
1.48
Cobán Imperial
0.81

Malacateco creates 83% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 146 away

creates per match

Malacateco
1.55
Cobán Imperial
0.88

allows per match

Malacateco
0.74
Cobán Imperial
1.40

finishing

Malacateco+0.00on par
Cobán Imperial+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malacateco ↓

Cobán Imperial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Malacateco or draw
79%
Malacateco or Cobán Imperial
74%
Draw or Cobán Imperial
47%

Winning margin

Malacateco wins by 2+
27%
Cobán Imperial wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Malacateco 1+ goals
77%
Malacateco 2+ goals
43%
Malacateco 3+ goals
19%
Cobán Imperial 1+ goals
56%
Cobán Imperial 2+ goals
19%
Cobán Imperial 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Malacateco (draw refunded)
72%
Cobán Imperial (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malacateco at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.74 · 146 matches

Cobán Imperial away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.40 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malacateco attack 1.55 + Cobán Imperial defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.48

Cobán Imperial attack 0.88 + Malacateco defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Malacateco scores more
53%
level
26%
Cobán Imperial scores more
21%

Malacateco at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Malacateco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malacateco vs Cobán Imperial

Malacateco beat Cobán Imperial 3-0 in Liga Nacional on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Santa Lucía in Malacatán.