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Maitland vs Valentine — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Maitland
Maitland
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Valentine
Valentine
2/24/2024Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 1Maitland Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Maitland54%
×Draw21%
Valentine25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maitland
2.08
Valentine
1.35

Maitland creates 54% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 77 away

creates per match

Maitland
2.12
Valentine
1.26

allows per match

Maitland
1.44
Valentine
2.05

finishing

Maitland+0.00on par
Valentine+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maitland ↓

Valentine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Maitland or draw
75%
Maitland or Valentine
79%
Draw or Valentine
46%

Winning margin

Maitland wins by 2+
32%
Valentine wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Maitland 1+ goals
87%
Maitland 2+ goals
61%
Maitland 3+ goals
34%
Valentine 1+ goals
74%
Valentine 2+ goals
39%
Valentine 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Maitland (draw refunded)
69%
Valentine (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maitland at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

Valentine away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.05 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maitland attack 2.12 + Valentine defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.08

Valentine attack 1.26 + Maitland defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Maitland scores more
54%
level
21%
Valentine scores more
25%

Maitland at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Maitland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern NSW NPL: Maitland 0–1 Valentine

Valentine beat Maitland 1-0 in Northern NSW NPL on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Maitland Sports Ground in Maitland.