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Annagh United vs Moyola Park — Premier Intermediate League 2018

Annagh United
Annagh United
FT
3 – 1
Moyola Park
Moyola Park
10/13/2018Premier Intermediate LeaguePremier Intermediate League · Round 4Tandragee Road (Portadown)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Annagh United53%
×Draw21%
Moyola Park26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Annagh United
2.13
Moyola Park
1.46

Annagh United creates 46% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 34 away

creates per match

Annagh United
2.21
Moyola Park
1.50

allows per match

Annagh United
1.43
Moyola Park
2.06

finishing

Annagh United+0.00on par
Moyola Park+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annagh United ↓

Moyola Park →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Annagh United or draw
74%
Annagh United or Moyola Park
79%
Draw or Moyola Park
47%

Winning margin

Annagh United wins by 2+
31%
Moyola Park wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Annagh United 1+ goals
88%
Annagh United 2+ goals
63%
Annagh United 3+ goals
35%
Moyola Park 1+ goals
77%
Moyola Park 2+ goals
43%
Moyola Park 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Annagh United (draw refunded)
67%
Moyola Park (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annagh United at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Moyola Park away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.06 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annagh United attack 2.21 + Moyola Park defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.13

Moyola Park attack 1.50 + Annagh United defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Annagh United scores more
53%
level
21%
Moyola Park scores more
26%

Annagh United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Annagh United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Annagh United vs Moyola Park

Annagh United beat Moyola Park 3-1 in Premier Intermediate League on October 13, 2018.

The match was played at Tandragee Road (Portadown).