Maidenhead vs Tonbridge Angels

Maidenhead

Preview

14:00

Tonbridge Angels

10/10/2026

League #51 · National League South - 11York Road

52%

Tonbridge Angels

model favours

25%24%52%

Maidenhead and Tonbridge Angels have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

55%

over 2.5 goals

56%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maidenhead25%

×Draw24%

Tonbridge Angels52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaidenheadExpected goals in this matchTonbridge Angels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.75

Maidenhead

1.13

Tonbridge Angels

1.75

Tonbridge Angels creates 55% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.25

creates per match

2.50

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Maidenhead

1.25

Tonbridge Angels

2.50

allows per match

Maidenhead

1.00

Tonbridge Angels

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maidenhead+0.00on par

Tonbridge Angels+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maidenhead ↓

Tonbridge Angels →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Maidenhead or draw

48%

Maidenhead or Tonbridge Angels

76%

Draw or Tonbridge Angels

75%

Winning margin

Maidenhead wins by 2+

9%

Tonbridge Angels wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Maidenhead 1+ goals

68%

Maidenhead 2+ goals

31%

Maidenhead 3+ goals

11%

Tonbridge Angels 1+ goals

83%

Tonbridge Angels 2+ goals

52%

Tonbridge Angels 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Maidenhead (draw refunded)

32%

Tonbridge Angels (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maidenhead at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Tonbridge Angels away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maidenhead attack 1.25 + Tonbridge Angels defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Tonbridge Angels attack 2.50 + Maidenhead defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Maidenhead scores more

25%

level

24%

Tonbridge Angels scores more

52%

Tonbridge Angels at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tonbridge Angels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Maidenhead

LLWLW

Angels

LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff