Maghreb Fès 0–2 FAR Rabat: Result & Stats | Cup

Maghreb Fès

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FAR Rabat

A. Zouhzouh 59'

Y. Aguerdoum 28' (OG)

6/23/2024

Cup · Semi-finalsStade d'Agadir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maghreb Fès17%

×Draw25%

FAR Rabat58%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maghreb FèsExpected goals in this matchFAR Rabat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

1.63

Maghreb Fès

0.75

FAR Rabat

1.63

FAR Rabat creates 117% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

0.75

creates per match

1.50

1.75

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Maghreb Fès

0.75

FAR Rabat

1.50

allows per match

Maghreb Fès

1.75

FAR Rabat

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maghreb Fès+0.00on par

FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maghreb Fès ↓

FAR Rabat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–115%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Maghreb Fès or draw

42%

Maghreb Fès or FAR Rabat

75%

Draw or FAR Rabat

83%

Winning margin

Maghreb Fès wins by 2+

5%

FAR Rabat wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Maghreb Fès 1+ goals

53%

Maghreb Fès 2+ goals

17%

Maghreb Fès 3+ goals

4%

FAR Rabat 1+ goals

80%

FAR Rabat 2+ goals

48%

FAR Rabat 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)

23%

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maghreb Fès at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maghreb Fès attack 0.75 + FAR Rabat defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.75

FAR Rabat attack 1.50 + Maghreb Fès defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Maghreb Fès scores more

17%

level

25%

FAR Rabat scores more

58%

FAR Rabat at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Y. AguerdoumOwn goal

59'

A. Zouhzouh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff