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Maghreb Fès vs FAR Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Maghreb Fès
Maghreb Fès
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
12/8/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 11Stade Hassan-II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Maghreb Fès33%
×Draw30%
FAR Rabat37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maghreb Fès
1.04
FAR Rabat
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 120 away

creates per match

Maghreb Fès
1.16
FAR Rabat
1.40

allows per match

Maghreb Fès
0.82
FAR Rabat
0.92

finishing

Maghreb Fès+0.00on par
FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maghreb Fès ↓

FAR Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Maghreb Fès or draw
63%
Maghreb Fès or FAR Rabat
70%
Draw or FAR Rabat
67%

Winning margin

Maghreb Fès wins by 2+
13%
FAR Rabat wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Maghreb Fès 1+ goals
65%
Maghreb Fès 2+ goals
28%
Maghreb Fès 3+ goals
9%
FAR Rabat 1+ goals
67%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
30%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)
47%
FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maghreb Fès at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.82 · 90 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maghreb Fès attack 1.16 + FAR Rabat defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.04

FAR Rabat attack 1.40 + Maghreb Fès defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Maghreb Fès scores more
33%
level
30%
FAR Rabat scores more
37%

FAR Rabat at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maghreb Fès vs FAR Rabat

FAR Rabat beat Maghreb Fès 3-1 in Botola Pro on December 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Hassan-II in Fès.