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Magdeburg II vs Greifswalder FC — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

Magdeburg II
Magdeburg II
Preview
12:00
Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
10/18/2026Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 13
Big match
52%
Magdeburg II
model favours
52%25%23%

Greifswalder FC score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Magdeburg II52%
×Draw25%
Greifswalder FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magdeburg II
1.57
Greifswalder FC
0.94

Magdeburg II creates 67% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 33 away

creates per match

Magdeburg II
1.75
Greifswalder FC
1.12

allows per match

Magdeburg II
0.75
Greifswalder FC
1.39

finishing

Magdeburg II+0.00on par
Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg II ↓

Greifswalder FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Magdeburg II or draw
77%
Magdeburg II or Greifswalder FC
75%
Draw or Greifswalder FC
48%

Winning margin

Magdeburg II wins by 2+
27%
Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Magdeburg II 1+ goals
79%
Magdeburg II 2+ goals
46%
Magdeburg II 3+ goals
21%
Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
61%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
24%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg II (draw refunded)
70%
Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Greifswalder FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg II attack 1.75 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.57

Greifswalder FC attack 1.12 + Magdeburg II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Magdeburg II scores more
52%
level
25%
Greifswalder FC scores more
23%

Magdeburg II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Magdeburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 91% of Greifswalder FC’s matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Magdeburg II 4 vs Greifswalder FC 2

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
DWD
FC
DLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Magdeburg II face Greifswalder FC (Regionalliga - Nordost)

Regionalliga - Nordost returns with Magdeburg II hosting Greifswalder FC. Match starts October 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.