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Magdeburg II vs BSG Chemie Leipzig — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

Magdeburg II
Magdeburg II
Preview
17:00
BSG Chemie Leipzig
BSG Chemie Leipzig
8/25/2026Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 6
55%
Magdeburg II
model favours
55%24%21%

Magdeburg II have won 3 of the last 3 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Magdeburg II55%
×Draw24%
BSG Chemie Leipzig21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magdeburg II
1.66
BSG Chemie Leipzig
0.91

Magdeburg II creates 82% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

creates per match

Magdeburg II
1.75
BSG Chemie Leipzig
1.07

allows per match

Magdeburg II
0.75
BSG Chemie Leipzig
1.57

finishing

Magdeburg II+0.00on par
BSG Chemie Leipzig+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg II ↓

BSG Chemie Leipzig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Magdeburg II or draw
79%
Magdeburg II or BSG Chemie Leipzig
76%
Draw or BSG Chemie Leipzig
45%

Winning margin

Magdeburg II wins by 2+
30%
BSG Chemie Leipzig wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Magdeburg II 1+ goals
81%
Magdeburg II 2+ goals
49%
Magdeburg II 3+ goals
23%
BSG Chemie Leipzig 1+ goals
60%
BSG Chemie Leipzig 2+ goals
23%
BSG Chemie Leipzig 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg II (draw refunded)
73%
BSG Chemie Leipzig (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

BSG Chemie Leipzig away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg II attack 1.75 + BSG Chemie Leipzig defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.66

BSG Chemie Leipzig attack 1.07 + Magdeburg II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Magdeburg II scores more
55%
level
24%
BSG Chemie Leipzig scores more
21%

Magdeburg II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Magdeburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Magdeburg II sit 4, BSG Chemie Leipzig 17 in the table
  • Their last 3 meetings averaged 4.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
DWD
Leipzig
LLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Magdeburg II face BSG Chemie Leipzig (Regionalliga - Nordost)

Regionalliga - Nordost returns with Magdeburg II hosting BSG Chemie Leipzig. Match starts August 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.