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Magallanes vs Deportes Valdivia — Primera B 2018

Magallanes
Magallanes
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
4/1/2018Primera BPrimera B · Round 8Estadio Municipal (San Bernardo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Magallanes55%
×Draw23%
Deportes Valdivia22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magallanes
1.78
Deportes Valdivia
1.02

Magallanes creates 75% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 36 away

creates per match

Magallanes
1.50
Deportes Valdivia
1.06

allows per match

Magallanes
0.97
Deportes Valdivia
2.06

finishing

Magallanes+0.00on par
Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magallanes ↓

Deportes Valdivia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Magallanes or draw
78%
Magallanes or Deportes Valdivia
77%
Draw or Deportes Valdivia
45%

Winning margin

Magallanes wins by 2+
31%
Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Magallanes 1+ goals
83%
Magallanes 2+ goals
53%
Magallanes 3+ goals
26%
Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
64%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
27%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Magallanes (draw refunded)
72%
Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magallanes at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.97 · 103 matches

Deportes Valdivia away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magallanes attack 1.50 + Deportes Valdivia defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.78

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.06 + Magallanes defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Magallanes scores more
55%
level
23%
Deportes Valdivia scores more
22%

Magallanes at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Magallanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Magallanes vs Deportes Valdivia

Magallanes beat Deportes Valdivia 3-2 in Primera B on April 1, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal (San Bernardo).