MAFCO 2–1 Chitipa United: Result & Stats

MAFCO

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Chitipa United

4/15/2023

Super League · Round 1Chitowe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

MAFCO54%

×Draw28%

Chitipa United18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MAFCOExpected goals in this matchChitipa United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.69

MAFCO

1.40

Chitipa United

0.69

MAFCO creates 103% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 65 away

1.25

creates per match

0.48

0.89

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

MAFCO

1.25

Chitipa United

0.48

allows per match

MAFCO

0.89

Chitipa United

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MAFCO+0.00on par

Chitipa United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MAFCO ↓

Chitipa United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

MAFCO or draw

82%

MAFCO or Chitipa United

72%

Draw or Chitipa United

46%

Winning margin

MAFCO wins by 2+

27%

Chitipa United wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

MAFCO 1+ goals

75%

MAFCO 2+ goals

41%

MAFCO 3+ goals

17%

Chitipa United 1+ goals

50%

Chitipa United 2+ goals

15%

Chitipa United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

MAFCO (draw refunded)

75%

Chitipa United (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MAFCO at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Chitipa United away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.54 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MAFCO attack 1.25 + Chitipa United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.40

Chitipa United attack 0.48 + MAFCO defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

MAFCO scores more

54%

level

28%

Chitipa United scores more

18%

MAFCO at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "MAFCO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff