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Madrid CFF W vs Real Betis W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Madrid CFF W
Madrid CFF W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Real Betis W
Real Betis W
6/27/2021Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 34Centro Deportivo Municipal Antiguo Canódromo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Madrid CFF W49%
×Draw23%
Real Betis W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Madrid CFF W
1.81
Real Betis W
1.31

Madrid CFF W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 104 away

creates per match

Madrid CFF W
1.52
Real Betis W
1.03

allows per match

Madrid CFF W
1.59
Real Betis W
2.10

finishing

Madrid CFF W+0.00on par
Real Betis W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madrid CFF W ↓

Real Betis W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Madrid CFF W or draw
72%
Madrid CFF W or Real Betis W
77%
Draw or Real Betis W
51%

Winning margin

Madrid CFF W wins by 2+
27%
Real Betis W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Madrid CFF W 1+ goals
84%
Madrid CFF W 2+ goals
54%
Madrid CFF W 3+ goals
27%
Real Betis W 1+ goals
73%
Real Betis W 2+ goals
38%
Real Betis W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)
64%
Real Betis W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madrid CFF W at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.59 · 118 matches

Real Betis W away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.10 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madrid CFF W attack 1.52 + Real Betis W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.81

Real Betis W attack 1.03 + Madrid CFF W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Madrid CFF W scores more
49%
level
23%
Real Betis W scores more
28%

Madrid CFF W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Madrid CFF W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Madrid CFF W 2–2 Real Betis W

Madrid CFF W and Real Betis W drew 2-2 in Primera División Femenina on June 27, 2021.

The match was played at Centro Deportivo Municipal Antiguo Canódromo in Madrid.