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Madrid CFF W vs Granad. Tenerife W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Madrid CFF W
Madrid CFF W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Granad. Tenerife W
Granad. Tenerife W
4/14/2019Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 27Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera (San Sebastián de los Reyes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Madrid CFF W41%
×Draw25%
Granad. Tenerife W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Madrid CFF W
1.55
Granad. Tenerife W
1.40

Madrid CFF W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 117 away

creates per match

Madrid CFF W
1.52
Granad. Tenerife W
1.21

allows per match

Madrid CFF W
1.59
Granad. Tenerife W
1.58

finishing

Madrid CFF W+0.00on par
Granad. Tenerife W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madrid CFF W ↓

Granad. Tenerife W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Madrid CFF W or draw
66%
Madrid CFF W or Granad. Tenerife W
75%
Draw or Granad. Tenerife W
59%

Winning margin

Madrid CFF W wins by 2+
20%
Granad. Tenerife W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Madrid CFF W 1+ goals
79%
Madrid CFF W 2+ goals
46%
Madrid CFF W 3+ goals
20%
Granad. Tenerife W 1+ goals
75%
Granad. Tenerife W 2+ goals
41%
Granad. Tenerife W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)
54%
Granad. Tenerife W (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madrid CFF W at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.59 · 118 matches

Granad. Tenerife W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.58 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madrid CFF W attack 1.52 + Granad. Tenerife W defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.55

Granad. Tenerife W attack 1.21 + Madrid CFF W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Madrid CFF W scores more
41%
level
25%
Granad. Tenerife W scores more
34%

Madrid CFF W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Madrid CFF W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Madrid CFF W 0 – 1 Granad. Tenerife W

Granad. Tenerife W beat Madrid CFF W 1-0 in Primera División Femenina on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera (San Sebastián de los Reyes).