Madrid CFF W vs Deportivo Alavés W

Madrid CFF W

Preview

15:00

Deportivo Alavés W

9/27/2026

Primera División Femenina · Round 5Estadio Fernando Torres

58%

Madrid CFF W

model favours

58%20%21%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

67%

over 2.5 goals

64%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Madrid CFF W58%

×Draw20%

Deportivo Alavés W21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Madrid CFF WExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Alavés W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.27

Madrid CFF W

2.20

Deportivo Alavés W

1.27

Madrid CFF W creates 73% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 30 away

1.52

creates per match

0.93

1.61

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Madrid CFF W

1.52

Deportivo Alavés W

0.93

allows per match

Madrid CFF W

1.61

Deportivo Alavés W

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Madrid CFF W+0.00on par

Deportivo Alavés W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madrid CFF W ↓

Deportivo Alavés W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Madrid CFF W or draw

79%

Madrid CFF W or Deportivo Alavés W

80%

Draw or Deportivo Alavés W

42%

Winning margin

Madrid CFF W wins by 2+

36%

Deportivo Alavés W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Madrid CFF W 1+ goals

89%

Madrid CFF W 2+ goals

64%

Madrid CFF W 3+ goals

37%

Deportivo Alavés W 1+ goals

72%

Deportivo Alavés W 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo Alavés W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)

73%

Deportivo Alavés W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madrid CFF W at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.61 · 117 matches

Deportivo Alavés W away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madrid CFF W attack 1.52 + Deportivo Alavés W defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.20

Deportivo Alavés W attack 0.93 + Madrid CFF W defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Madrid CFF W scores more

58%

level

20%

Deportivo Alavés W scores more

21%

Madrid CFF W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Madrid CFF W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

W

LWWLL

W

DDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff