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Madrid CFF W vs Barcelona W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Madrid CFF W
Madrid CFF W
Preview
15:00
Barcelona W
Barcelona W
5/19/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 29Estadio Fernando Torres
Big match
73%
Barcelona W
model favours
11%16%73%

Barcelona W have won 9 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

0–2
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Madrid CFF W11%
×Draw16%
Barcelona W73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Madrid CFF W
0.93
Barcelona W
2.65

Barcelona W creates 185% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 119 away

creates per match

Madrid CFF W
1.52
Barcelona W
3.70

allows per match

Madrid CFF W
1.59
Barcelona W
0.34

finishing

Madrid CFF W+0.00on par
Barcelona W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madrid CFF W ↓

Barcelona W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–210%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Madrid CFF W or draw
27%
Madrid CFF W or Barcelona W
84%
Draw or Barcelona W
89%

Winning margin

Madrid CFF W wins by 2+
3%
Barcelona W wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Madrid CFF W 1+ goals
61%
Madrid CFF W 2+ goals
24%
Madrid CFF W 3+ goals
7%
Barcelona W 1+ goals
93%
Barcelona W 2+ goals
74%
Barcelona W 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)
13%
Barcelona W (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madrid CFF W at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.59 · 118 matches

Barcelona W away — creates 3.70, concedes 0.34 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madrid CFF W attack 1.52 + Barcelona W defence 0.34 → ÷2 → 0.93

Barcelona W attack 3.70 + Madrid CFF W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Madrid CFF W scores more
11%
level
16%
Barcelona W scores more
73%

Barcelona W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 6.2 goals
  • Madrid CFF W win just 22% against the top half (vs 54% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Madrid CFF W
Possession-dominant
Barcelona W
Possession-dominant
55%Possession73%
77%Pass accuracy89%
13.8ShotsBiggest gap26.0
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Madrid CFF WBarcelona W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
Madrid CFF W
0
Draws
9
Barcelona W
Avg goals: 6.2BTTS: 50%
0–41–121–51–80–8

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
LWWLL
W
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Madrid CFF W face Barcelona W (Primera División Femenina)

Primera División Femenina returns with Madrid CFF W hosting Barcelona W. Match starts May 19, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Madrid CFF W host Barcelona W at Estadio Fernando Torres.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.