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Madrid CFF W vs Atletico Madrid W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Madrid CFF W
Madrid CFF W
Preview
16:00
Atletico Madrid W
Atletico Madrid W
2/21/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 21Estadio Fernando Torres
Big match
49%
Atletico Madrid W
model favours
28%24%49%

Madrid CFF W win just 22% against the top half (vs 54% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Madrid CFF W28%
×Draw24%
Atletico Madrid W49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Madrid CFF W
1.27
Atletico Madrid W
1.75

Atletico Madrid W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 118 away

creates per match

Madrid CFF W
1.52
Atletico Madrid W
1.92

allows per match

Madrid CFF W
1.59
Atletico Madrid W
1.02

finishing

Madrid CFF W+0.00on par
Atletico Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madrid CFF W ↓

Atletico Madrid W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Madrid CFF W or draw
51%
Madrid CFF W or Atletico Madrid W
76%
Draw or Atletico Madrid W
72%

Winning margin

Madrid CFF W wins by 2+
12%
Atletico Madrid W wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Madrid CFF W 1+ goals
72%
Madrid CFF W 2+ goals
36%
Madrid CFF W 3+ goals
14%
Atletico Madrid W 1+ goals
83%
Atletico Madrid W 2+ goals
52%
Atletico Madrid W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)
36%
Atletico Madrid W (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madrid CFF W at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.59 · 118 matches

Atletico Madrid W away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.02 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madrid CFF W attack 1.52 + Atletico Madrid W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.27

Atletico Madrid W attack 1.92 + Madrid CFF W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Madrid CFF W scores more
28%
level
24%
Atletico Madrid W scores more
49%

Atletico Madrid W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atletico Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Madrid CFF W
Balanced
Atletico Madrid W
Possession-dominant
54%Possession58%
77%Pass accuracyBiggest gap82%
14.0Shots13.3
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Madrid CFF WAtletico Madrid W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

0
Madrid CFF W
6
Draws
4
Atletico Madrid W
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 70%
0–01–10–30–41–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
LWWLL
W
LDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Madrid CFF W face Atletico Madrid W (Primera División Femenina)

Primera División Femenina returns with Madrid CFF W hosting Atletico Madrid W. Match starts February 21, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Madrid CFF W host Atletico Madrid W at Estadio Fernando Torres.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.