Madrid CFF W vs Athletic Club W

Madrid CFF W

Preview

15:00

Athletic Club W

10/4/2026

Primera División Femenina · Round 6Estadio Fernando Torres

Big match

41%

Madrid CFF W

model favours

41%25%35%

Madrid CFF W win just 22% against the top half (vs 54% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

56%

over 2.5 goals

59%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Madrid CFF W41%

×Draw25%

Athletic Club W35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Madrid CFF WExpected goals in this matchAthletic Club W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.40

Madrid CFF W

1.54

Athletic Club W

1.40

Madrid CFF W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 120 away

1.52

creates per match

1.21

1.59

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Madrid CFF W

1.52

Athletic Club W

1.21

allows per match

Madrid CFF W

1.59

Athletic Club W

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Madrid CFF W+0.00on par

Athletic Club W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madrid CFF W ↓

Athletic Club W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Madrid CFF W or draw

65%

Madrid CFF W or Athletic Club W

75%

Draw or Athletic Club W

59%

Winning margin

Madrid CFF W wins by 2+

20%

Athletic Club W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Madrid CFF W 1+ goals

79%

Madrid CFF W 2+ goals

45%

Madrid CFF W 3+ goals

20%

Athletic Club W 1+ goals

75%

Athletic Club W 2+ goals

41%

Athletic Club W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)

54%

Athletic Club W (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madrid CFF W at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.59 · 118 matches

Athletic Club W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madrid CFF W attack 1.52 + Athletic Club W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

Athletic Club W attack 1.21 + Madrid CFF W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Madrid CFF W scores more

41%

level

25%

Athletic Club W scores more

35%

Madrid CFF W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Madrid CFF W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Madrid CFF W

Possession-dominant

Athletic Club W

Balanced

56%Possession52%

77%Pass accuracy79%

13.8ShotsBiggest gap8.8

—xG—

Madrid CFF WAthletic Club W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4

Madrid CFF W

1

Draws

5

Athletic Club W

Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 60%

1–40–21–10–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

W

LWWLL

W

WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff