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Macva vs Proleter Novi SAD — Super Liga 2018

Macva
Macva
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Proleter Novi SAD
Proleter Novi SAD
3/16/2019Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 27Stadion FK Mačva (Šabac)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Macva37%
×Draw29%
Proleter Novi SAD34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macva
1.15
Proleter Novi SAD
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 72 away

creates per match

Macva
0.74
Proleter Novi SAD
0.81

allows per match

Macva
1.37
Proleter Novi SAD
1.56

finishing

Macva+0.00on par
Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macva ↓

Proleter Novi SAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Macva or draw
66%
Macva or Proleter Novi SAD
71%
Draw or Proleter Novi SAD
63%

Winning margin

Macva wins by 2+
15%
Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Macva 1+ goals
68%
Macva 2+ goals
32%
Macva 3+ goals
11%
Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals
66%
Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals
30%
Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Macva (draw refunded)
52%
Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macva at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.37 · 54 matches

Proleter Novi SAD away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macva attack 0.74 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.15

Proleter Novi SAD attack 0.81 + Macva defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Macva scores more
37%
level
29%
Proleter Novi SAD scores more
34%

Macva at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Macva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Macva vs Proleter Novi SAD

Macva beat Proleter Novi SAD 2-1 in Super Liga on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion FK Mačva (Šabac).