Machida Zelvia 0–0 Yokohama FC: Result & Stats

Machida Zelvia

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Yokohama FC

9/22/2019

J2 League · Round 33Machida Athletic Stadium (Tokyo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Machida Zelvia34%

×Draw28%

Yokohama FC38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Machida ZelviaExpected goals in this matchYokohama FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.25

Machida Zelvia

1.16

Yokohama FC

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 126 home / 86 away

1.32

creates per match

1.41

1.10

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Machida Zelvia

1.32

Yokohama FC

1.41

allows per match

Machida Zelvia

1.10

Yokohama FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Yokohama FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw

62%

Machida Zelvia or Yokohama FC

72%

Draw or Yokohama FC

66%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

14%

Yokohama FC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

69%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

32%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

11%

Yokohama FC 1+ goals

71%

Yokohama FC 2+ goals

36%

Yokohama FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

47%

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 126 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.32 + Yokohama FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Yokohama FC attack 1.41 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more

34%

level

28%

Yokohama FC scores more

38%

Yokohama FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff