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Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos — J1 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
Preview
10:00
Yokohama F. Marinos
Yokohama F. Marinos
9/12/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 7Machida GION Stadium
Big match
41%
Machida Zelvia
model favours
41%25%34%

Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Machida Zelvia41%
×Draw25%
Yokohama F. Marinos34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.47
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.33

Machida Zelvia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 152 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
1.41
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.67

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.00
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.53

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par
Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Yokohama F. Marinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
66%
Machida Zelvia or Yokohama F. Marinos
75%
Draw or Yokohama F. Marinos
59%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
19%
Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
77%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
43%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
18%
Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals
74%
Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals
38%
Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
54%
Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 44 matches

Yokohama F. Marinos away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.53 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.41 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.47

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.67 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
41%
level
25%
Yokohama F. Marinos scores more
34%

Machida Zelvia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Yokohama F. Marinos score first in only 18% of matches
  • 70% of Machida Zelvia’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Style contrast — Machida Zelvia play Defensively solid, Yokohama F. Marinos Direct / counter-attacking
  • 35% of Machida Zelvia’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Machida Zelvia
Defensively solid
Yokohama F. Marinos
Direct / counter-attacking
45%Possession44%
78%Pass accuracy71%
12.9Shots10.9
1.63xGBiggest gap1.21
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Machida ZelviaYokohama F. Marinos

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3
Machida Zelvia
1
Draws
2
Yokohama F. Marinos
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 50%
2–03–20–00–31–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Zelvia
DDWDD
Marinos
DWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Machida Zelvia face Yokohama F. Marinos (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Machida Zelvia hosting Yokohama F. Marinos. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Machida Zelvia host Yokohama F. Marinos at Machida GION Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.