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Machida Zelvia vs Tokushima Vortis — J2 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
7/21/2019J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 23Machida Athletic Stadium (Tokyo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Machida Zelvia36%
×Draw28%
Tokushima Vortis35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.17
Tokushima Vortis
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 126 home / 147 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
1.32
Tokushima Vortis
1.19

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.10
Tokushima Vortis
1.02

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par
Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Tokushima Vortis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
65%
Machida Zelvia or Tokushima Vortis
72%
Draw or Tokushima Vortis
64%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
15%
Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
69%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
33%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
11%
Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
68%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
32%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
51%
Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 126 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.32 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.17

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.19 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
36%
level
28%
Tokushima Vortis scores more
35%

Machida Zelvia at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Machida Zelvia 0–3 Tokushima Vortis

Tokushima Vortis beat Machida Zelvia 3-0 in J2 League on July 21, 2019.

The match was played at Machida Athletic Stadium (Tokyo).