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Machida Zelvia vs Thespakusatsu Gunma — J2 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Thespakusatsu Gunma
Thespakusatsu Gunma
11/29/2020J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 37Machida Gion Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Machida Zelvia46%
×Draw27%
Thespakusatsu Gunma27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.43
Thespakusatsu Gunma
1.04

Machida Zelvia creates 38% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 105 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
1.32
Thespakusatsu Gunma
0.97

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.10
Thespakusatsu Gunma
1.53

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par
Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Thespakusatsu Gunma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
73%
Machida Zelvia or Thespakusatsu Gunma
73%
Draw or Thespakusatsu Gunma
54%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
22%
Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
76%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
42%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
17%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals
65%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals
28%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
63%
Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 126 matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.32 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 0.97 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
46%
level
27%
Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more
27%

Machida Zelvia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Machida Zelvia 0–3 Thespakusatsu Gunma

Thespakusatsu Gunma beat Machida Zelvia 3-0 in J2 League on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Machida Gion Stadium in Tokyo.