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Machida Zelvia vs Renofa Yamaguchi — J2 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
4/22/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 10Machida Athletic Stadium (Tokyo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Machida Zelvia45%
×Draw27%
Renofa Yamaguchi28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.41
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.04

Machida Zelvia creates 36% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 168 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
1.32
Renofa Yamaguchi
0.98

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.10
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.50

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par
Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
72%
Machida Zelvia or Renofa Yamaguchi
73%
Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi
55%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
22%
Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
76%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
41%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
17%
Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
65%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
28%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
62%
Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 126 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.50 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.32 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.98 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
45%
level
27%
Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
28%

Machida Zelvia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Machida Zelvia 1–2 Renofa Yamaguchi

Renofa Yamaguchi beat Machida Zelvia 2-1 in J2 League on April 22, 2018.

The match was played at Machida Athletic Stadium (Tokyo).