Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus

Machida Zelvia

Preview

11:00

Nagoya Grampus

3/13/2027

J1 League · Round 26Machida GION Stadium

Big match

47%

Machida Zelvia

model favours

47%23%30%

Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

64%

over 2.5 goals

65%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Machida Zelvia47%

×Draw23%

Nagoya Grampus30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Machida ZelviaExpected goals in this matchNagoya Grampus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.46

Machida Zelvia

1.86

Nagoya Grampus

1.46

Machida Zelvia creates 27% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.16

creates per match

1.77

1.14

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Machida Zelvia

2.16

Nagoya Grampus

1.77

allows per match

Machida Zelvia

1.14

Nagoya Grampus

1.56

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Machida Zelvia-0.36scores less

Nagoya Grampus-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Nagoya Grampus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw

70%

Machida Zelvia or Nagoya Grampus

77%

Draw or Nagoya Grampus

53%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

26%

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

84%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

55%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

28%

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals

77%

Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals

43%

Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

61%

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.14 · 5 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.56 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 2.16 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.86

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.77 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more

47%

level

23%

Nagoya Grampus scores more

30%

Machida Zelvia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

92% of Nagoya Grampus’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Nagoya Grampus score first in only 33% of matches
Both teams score in 75% of Nagoya Grampus’s matches
70% of Machida Zelvia’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Top-of-the-table clash — Machida Zelvia 3 vs Nagoya Grampus 3
35% of Machida Zelvia’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Machida Zelvia

Defensively solid

Nagoya Grampus

Balanced

45%PossessionBiggest gap50%

78%Pass accuracy77%

12.9Shots12.1

1.63xG1.59

Machida ZelviaNagoya Grampus

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

4

Machida Zelvia

2

Draws

0

Nagoya Grampus

Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 50%

0–02–23–12–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Zelvia

DDWDD

Grampus

DDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff