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Machida Zelvia vs Montedio Yamagata — J2 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Montedio Yamagata
Montedio Yamagata
7/4/2020J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 3Machida Gion Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Machida Zelvia37%
×Draw27%
Montedio Yamagata35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.24
Montedio Yamagata
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 126 home / 170 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
1.32
Montedio Yamagata
1.27

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.10
Montedio Yamagata
1.16

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par
Montedio Yamagata+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Montedio Yamagata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
65%
Machida Zelvia or Montedio Yamagata
73%
Draw or Montedio Yamagata
63%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
16%
Montedio Yamagata wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
71%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
35%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
13%
Montedio Yamagata 1+ goals
70%
Montedio Yamagata 2+ goals
33%
Montedio Yamagata 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
52%
Montedio Yamagata (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 126 matches

Montedio Yamagata away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.16 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.32 + Montedio Yamagata defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.24

Montedio Yamagata attack 1.27 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
37%
level
27%
Montedio Yamagata scores more
35%

Machida Zelvia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Machida Zelvia 0–0 Montedio Yamagata

Machida Zelvia and Montedio Yamagata drew 0-0 in J2 League on July 4, 2020.

The match was played at Machida Gion Stadium in Tokyo.