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Machida Zelvia vs Kyoto Sanga — J2 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
4/11/2021J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 7Machida Gion Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Machida Zelvia41%
×Draw28%
Kyoto Sanga32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.29
Kyoto Sanga
1.10

Machida Zelvia creates 17% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 84 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
1.32
Kyoto Sanga
1.11

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.10
Kyoto Sanga
1.25

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
68%
Machida Zelvia or Kyoto Sanga
72%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
59%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
18%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
72%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
37%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
14%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
67%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
30%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
56%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 126 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.25 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.32 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.11 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
41%
level
28%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
32%

Machida Zelvia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Machida Zelvia vs Kyoto Sanga

Kyoto Sanga beat Machida Zelvia 1-0 in J2 League on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Machida Gion Stadium in Tokyo.