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Machida Zelvia vs Kawasaki Frontale — J1 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
Preview
10:00
Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale
9/2/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 5Machida GION Stadium
Big match
45%
Machida Zelvia
model favours
45%23%32%

Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Machida Zelvia45%
×Draw23%
Kawasaki Frontale32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.75
Kawasaki Frontale
1.44

Machida Zelvia creates 22% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
2.16
Kawasaki Frontale
1.73

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.14
Kawasaki Frontale
1.34

finishing

Machida Zelvia-0.36scores less
Kawasaki Frontale+0.47scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Kawasaki Frontale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
68%
Machida Zelvia or Kawasaki Frontale
77%
Draw or Kawasaki Frontale
55%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
24%
Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
83%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
52%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
25%
Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals
76%
Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals
42%
Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
59%
Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.14 · 5 matches

Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.34 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 2.16 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.75

Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.73 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
45%
level
23%
Kawasaki Frontale scores more
32%

Machida Zelvia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Kawasaki Frontale score first in only 31% of matches
  • 53% of Kawasaki Frontale’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 70% of Machida Zelvia’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 69% of Kawasaki Frontale’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Machida Zelvia 3 vs Kawasaki Frontale 4
  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Machida Zelvia
Defensively solid
Kawasaki Frontale
Attack-heavy
45%PossessionBiggest gap53%
78%Pass accuracy82%
12.9Shots14.1
1.63xG1.66
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Machida ZelviaKawasaki Frontale

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

1
Machida Zelvia
3
Draws
2
Kawasaki Frontale
Avg goals: 3.7BTTS: 83%
1–11–13–52–21–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Zelvia
DDWDD
Frontale
DLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Machida Zelvia host Kawasaki Frontale

September 2, 2026: Machida Zelvia take on Kawasaki Frontale in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Machida Zelvia host Kawasaki Frontale at Machida GION Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.